Study Suggests that Solar Activity is also Linked to the Tzolkin Cycle

The Hypothesis

My working hypothesis is based on my multi-year study of the Tzolkin Cycle.

My understanding and observations of the Tzolkin cycle had led me to hypothesize that the various forms of hyper-activity I noted on Hyper-Days should also be reflected in volcanism, seismicity (earthquakes), and solar activity –  if my theoretical understandings and observations of the Tzolkin Cycle are correct.

[If you are not familiar with the Tzolkin Chart and Hyper-Days click the link to take you to bottom of page where you will find a brief orientation to the Tzolkin chart and Hyper-Days.]

Therefore, I am looking for evidence of greater activity in terms of frequency (quantity) and intensity (magnitude) in my studies as they relate to Hyper-Days. The study on earthquakes measured both aspects. Frequency may also be regarded as a measure of intensity.

The study on volcanism measured only the frequency or number of volcanic events per day. Sunspot activity fluctuates and the questions ismight some aspects of the fluctuations in activity be attributable to the Tzolkin cycle?

Further down you will find a series of graphs that plot the days of Tzolkin Cycle against a six month back drop of solar activity. Also included are some bar graphs displaying different measurements of the data.


The Study:

Empirical Evidence for the Concurrence of Tzolkin Cycle Hyper-Days with the Highest Sunspot Counts over a 6 month period starting September 1, 2009 and ending March 2, 2010.

The number of sunspots fluctuates day to day just like seismic and volcanic activity. My observations allow me to say that activity across many domains of life seems to ramp up, start up, and “boil over” during what I call a Hyper-Day Window (HDW).

A HDW is the day before, the day of, and the day after a HD.

The only way test and show if what I am observing is a persistent and regular pattern not dependent on, nor subject to observer interpretation, is to record instances of a given phenomena, and see how the instances match up against the days I say we should expect to see a flareup of activity.

Thus far I have performed 3 studies – one on earthquakes, one on volcanic activity, and the one you are reading on solar activity. All three studies demonstrate clear, strong, and unequivocal support for my working hypothesis on Tzolkin Cycle Hyper-Days.

My studies have yet to be verified by 3rd parties, but my studies are simple, straight forward in design, and the data I use is in the public domain. I am confident that my findings will be confirmed and upheld by others in due time. I am just beginning to roll out the verification aspect of my work on theTzolkin Cycle


Study Procedure and Methods

I obtained data for sunspot and solar flares counts from the Solar Values Report. The data for the Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) was obtained from SECCHI CME List.

I recorded the number of solar events per type according to the day on which they occurred. The study period starts September 1, 2009 and ends March 2, 2010.

The daily sunspot count is a measure of emerging and persisting sunspots. That is, certain sunspots may last for days and even weeks while others appear and disappear in a period of one day. Sunspots themselves are a measure of intensified solar activity. More sunspots means more intense solar activity.

The study is focused on sunspots, but there are also a few measures of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and Solar Flares. Aspects not measured were sunspot size, and the intensity of solar flares and CMEs.


What Are Solar Events?

I have already described what a sunspot is.

Coronal Mass Ejection

A coronal mass ejection (CME) is an explosive ejection of material from the solar corona. The ejected material is a plasma consisting primarily of electrons and protons in addition to small quantities of heavier elements such as helium, oxygen, and iron.

Strong CME events reaching earth can disrupt radio transmissions, cause power outages (blackouts), and cause damage to satellites and electrical transmission lines. CMEs can cause strong aurora also known as the Northern Lights, or aurora borealis (in the Northern Hemisphere), and the Southern Lights, or aurora australis (in the Southern Hemisphere).

Solar Flare

A solar flare is a large explosion in the Sun’s atmosphere. Solar flares affect all layers of the solar atmosphere (photosphere,corona, and chromosphere), heating plasma to tens of millions of kelvins, and accelerating electrons, protons, and heavier ions to near the speed of light.

They produce radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum at all wavelengths, from radio waves to gamma rays.

Most flares occur in active regions around sunspots, where intense magnetic fields penetrate the photosphere to link the corona to the solar interior. Flares are powered by the sudden release of magnetic energy stored in the corona.


Research Highlights

My research findings allow me to say that sunspot activity and number is by a large measure greatest during Hyper-Day Windows HDWs.

  • 32 of the top 45 days w/ the highest sunspots counts concurred with a HDW. In other words, 71% of days with the highest sunspot scores were HDWs
  • 17 of the 24 peak sunspot counts* concurred with a HDW, or 70% of peak sunspot counts concurred with a HDW.
  • 5 of 5 other measures exemplified in the following Bar Graphs also indicate that the sunspot count and CME frequency is greatest during HDWs. The 5 measures are:
  • Average Daily Sunspot Count
  • Sunspot Frequency
  • Sunspot Surge Intensity
  • CME Frequency
  • CME Surge Intensity

* A peak sunspot count is characterized by an increase trend that stops (peaks) and then decreases the very next day. On the plot graphs they are denoted by the sharp green triangles.

5 of 5 key measurements indicate that the sunspot number and activity is by far the greatest on HDWs

3 of 3 key measures indicate that CMEs occurrence is greatest and more apt to concur during HDWs.

2 of 4 key measures indicate that flare activity if greatest and more apt to concur during HDWs.

A total of 42 different measurements were noted on the plots and bar graphs.

38 of the 42 measurements I consider to be “key”. The 4 measurements I do not consider to be key are those measurements at the lowest activity ranges, where if my premise is correct, I would expect Standard Days to predominate, and that is indeed the case with the 4 measurements I do not consider key.

After factoring as described I can say that…

34 of 38 key measures involving Sunspots, CMEs and Flares support the statement that thus far Solar Activity is greatest during HDWs.


Data Measures: The Graphs

The first graph I present plots solar activity between September 1 and October 29, 2009. You will find two other plots like the Sept-Oct. one. There is one for Nov-Dec/2009, and another for Jan-Mar/2nd/2010 at the end of this article.

Bar graphs bearing out the mathematical results start immediately after plot number one. On the plots themselves, I note other telling features and measurements in text boxes. Click on the Images to Enlarge.

Important Note: The study spanned a period of 181 days. 91 days correspond to HDWs and 90 days correspond to Standard Days.

Neither type of day has a quantitative advantage worth factoring for, given the very large margins by which the concurrence of solar activity shares with HDWs in contrast to Standard Days.

 

Plot Graph 1:

Sept-Oct 2009 Correlation of Solar Activity with Tzolkin Cycle Hyper-Days

The data provided by the master plots enabled me to create the following bar graphs were the more telling and precise mathematical correlations are presented.

 

Bar Graph 1:

Contrasting the Frequency of Sunspots between Hyper-Day Windows (HDWs) and Standard Days (SDs)

The measure of bar graph 1 was established by categorizing every day of the study period according to the number of sunspots reported for a specified day by the Solar Values Report . I then recorded the number of times a day when x number of sunspots happened during the study.

Days registering 20 to 75 sunspots were 2.21 times more likely to be HDWs. Said another way, 42 HDWs registered sunspot counts in the 20 to 75 range, whereas 19 Standard Days registered such scores.


Bar Graph 2:

Contrasting the Surge Intensity of the Sunspot Count between HDWs and Standard Days

By, surge intensity, I mean the difference in the number of sunspots from one day to the next. The aspect measured by bar graph 2 was established by categorizing the upticks in the number of sunspots according to the difference in the number of spots from one day to the next.

If on one day there were 11 sunspots, and then the very next day there were 25, then the “magnitude of surge intensity” had a value of 14, and I counted 1 instance for the particular type of day (SD or HDW) in the 10 to 19 surge intensity category. I then recorded the number of times the various surge categories happened during the study, and the type of day they corresponded with. Here too, HDWs were responsible for surge events by a factor of 2 to 1. There were 30 HDWs responsible for surge events whereas 15 were recorded for SDs.

Sunspot counts recorded the greatest number of surge events during HDWs in 3 out of 3 categories.


Bar Graph 4:

Contrast of Average Daily Sunspot Count between HDWs and Standard Days

Bar graph 4 charts the daily averages of the sunspot count according to the three bi-monthly periods graphed in this study.

Averages are not the most revealing of statistics as they unnaturally flatten the natural ups and down of all phenomena. And cyclical behavior is what I am attempting to discover. Nevertheless, I have provided averages of daily sunspot counts, and then contrasted HDW and Standard Day averages.

Here too we find that the average number of sunspots is greater on HDWs in every study period.

Each measurement thus far offers strong support for the statement that the sunspot count is greatest during HDWs.


Bar Graph :5

Contrast of CME Frequency and Surge Intensity Count between HDWs and Standard Days

CME Frequency and Surge Intensity BG

Bar Graph :6

Contrast of Solar Flare Frequency between HDWs and Standard Days

Two out of 5 flare activity measures did not support my premise on Hyper-Day activity. But my hypothesis does not say that I expect every phenomena to fit the pattern. I’m finding which do and which don’t.

Flare activity was sporadic during the study period. The first 4 four months of the study saw flare activity consistent with results supporting my premise, but 6 Standard Days of very high activity in Jan-Feb pushed the total study period of flares activity out of the HD pattern. Many more months of flare activity must be mapped in order to understand the rhythms flares may follow, if any. A small correction : the bottom text line on the graph should read flare frequency reached greatest heights on 6 Standard days out of a total of 43 days recording flares.

Solar Flare Graph


A consistent or daily occurring phenomena, or a very long study period provides the most accurate backdrop against which to detect any possible rhythms or patterns. Two significant measure of flare activity that did support my hypothesis are as follows: 63 percent of days registering flares were HDWs. Flares in the 2 to 8 flare events per day category were apt to concur with Hyper-Days by a margin 21 to 4.

Plot Graph 2:

Nov-Dec 2009 Correlation of Solar Activity with Tzolkin Cycle Hyper-Days

HYPER-DAY SEQUENCES

Plot graph 2 displays a distribution of HDs much different from the other 2 plots, in that the months of November and December 2009 coincided with the two unique stretches of ten consecutive HDs, Hyper-day Sequence, that are found on either side of the middle column of the Tzolkin Cycle chart.

Please see the Tzolkin chart shown near the bottom of this page for orientation. As with HDs, I include the day before and after the Hyper-Day Sequence (HDS) as part of the total HDS count.

Solar Activity Plot Nov-Dec 2009

 

Plot Graph 3:

Jan-Mar/2/ 2010 Correlation of Solar Activity with Tzolkin Cycle Hyper-Days

 

Tzolkin Cycle Chart and Hyper-Day Brief

The days key to the study are known as Hyper-Days, and there are 52 such days within the overall 260 day Tzolkin Cycle. Please see chart.

The 52 Hyper-Days of the Tzolkin stand out from the all other Tzolkin Cycle days by possessing a characteristic that corresponds with the “activity intensification/amplification” of all terrestrial phenomena inclusive of the human domain, hence the term Hyper-Day (HD) to denote hyper-activity.

The foregoing statement will soon include solar phenomena, for on the heels of this report, I will release another study that correlates spot and solar flare activity with the Tzolkin Cycle.

My study of Tzolkin Cycle has led me to note how activity of all sorts seems to “start up”, “ramp up”, “boil over”, and generally increase with the onset of a Hyper-Day.

Peak events and tipping points may also be included as descriptors of the characteristics of the events that have a propensity to occur during what I call a Hyper-Day Window(HDW).

A HDW is the day before, the day of, and the day after a HD.

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